The Vancouver Police just released their February crime statistics for the city.
During the month of February there were almost 100 fewer burglaries reported in the city compared to January. The Westside saw a decrease of about 75 burglaries in the same period.
I created a couple graphs (double click on each to make them bigger) to show how February compared. The first is an extension of the same graph I posted a few weeks ago which shows the total number of reported burglaries on the Westside as well as the percentage of burglaries throughout the city that occur on the Westside. The second graph (the line graph) compares four neighbourhoods: Kerrisdale, Shaughnessy, Dunbar/Southlands and West Point Grey since December 2005. As you can see, with the exception of Dunbar, the other three neighbourhoods had fewer burglaries than in January. Kerrisdale had the most marked difference going from twenty-eight (28) reported burglaries in January to thirteen (13) in February, which is the lowest total since November.
I found it interesting that January was the only month in the past year that saw all four of these neighbourhoods experience an increase in reported burglaries. In every other month, an increase in one neighbourhood coincided with a decrease in one or more of the others.
Here is the breakdown by neighbourhood for December 2005 through February 2006:
Often times, we are asked by clients how the crime is in their particular neighbourhood. As these statistics illustrate, there really isn’t a true pattern in terms of being able to accurately predict what is going to happen based on past statistics. Certainly, the style of burglaries change depending on the season (for example, there tends to be more burglaries through windows in the summer, due to the fact that many are left open), but the actual amount of activity throughout the entire Westside stays fairly constant (an average of 290 per month). In my own unscientific experience, I have found that crooks tend to work an area for a while, resulting in a spike of activity, before either getting caught or moving on to another neighbourhood.
I recall an incident in our own parking garage where I had a run-in (literally) with a car thief who, once caught a couple weeks later, the Police figured was responsible for a significant number of recent Dunbar burglaries. In the words of one of the Constables who was involved with the incident, the car thief was a “walking crime wave”. Once arrested, the impact on Dunbar burglaries was quite dramatic… for a while. Eventually someone else moved in and took over.
The fact that the majority of crime is committed by a small minority of people helps explain why so many burglaries happen in such a similar fashion. It also helps improve your odds at being able to prevent a burglary by being able to correctly anticipate how a burglary could happen at your home or business.
As always, if you have any questions or comments, please use the comments icon below or send me an email (a link is on the profile page).